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    Tuesday, February 02, 2010

     

    The Ignoble Prize for Economics

    by Dollars and Sense

    The Real-World Economics Review (formerly the Post-Autistic Economics Review), has opened voting for what they are calling the Ignoble Prize for Economics, for "the three economists who contributed most to enabling the Global Financial Collapse." Here are the details:

    Twenty-two economists were nominated for the prize. Through consultation with contributors to the Real-World Economics Review Blog, the following short list of ten, including two pairs of economists, has been selected for the ballot.

    Dossiers of short-listed of nominees for the Ignoble Prize for Economics:

    Fischer Black and Myron Scholes
    They jointly developed the Black-Scholes model which led to the explosive growth of financial derivatives. The importance given to their hypothetical calculation of derivative prices was baneful not just because it was bogus, but also because it meant that relevant and often urgent real-world economic research was widely neglected by the profession.

    Eugene Fama
    His "efficient market theory" provided the moral umbrella for all sorts of greed, predatory behaviour and incompetent corporate management. It also provided the rationale for deregulation. And his theory’s widespread acceptance meant that "discussion of investor irrationality, of bubbles, of destructive speculation had virtually disappeared from academic discourse." In these three ways Fama’s work created the environment which made possible the GFC.

    Milton Friedman
    He propagated the delusion, through his misunderstanding of the scientific method, that an economy can be accurately modeled using counterfactual propositions about its nature. This, together with his simplistic model of money, encouraged the development of the financial theories with unrealistic assumptions that facilitated the GFC. In short, he opened the door for everyone subsequently to theorize without fear of having to be attached to reality.

    Alan Greenspan
    As Chairman of the Federal Reserve System from 1987 to 2006, he both led the over expansion of money and credit that created the bubble that burst and aggressively promoted the view that financial markets are naturally efficient and in no need of regulation. Before a Congressional committee on 28 October 2008 Greenspan confessed that his theoretical beliefs of 40 years were now proven to be without foundation, hence his total confusion and failure at his job.

    Assar Lindbeck
    By working to make the Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences ("Nobel Prize in Economics") almost exclusively a prize for neoclassical economists, this Swedish economist has contributed significantly to the conversion of the economics profession and of world public opinion to market fundamentalism.

    Robert Lucas
    His development of the rational expectations hypothesis, which defined rationality as the capacity to accurately predict the future, both served to maintain Friedman's proposition that monetary factors do not affect the real economy and, in the name of "rigor", distanced economics even further from reality than Friedman had thought possible.

    Richard Portes
    As Secretary-General of the Royal Economic Society from 1992-2008, he helped suppress worries expressed by non-mainstream economists about developments in the financial sector. In 2007 he wrote a Report for the Icelandic Chamber of Commerce giving a clean bill of health to Icelandic banks only a few months before they collapsed. When investigators called attention to the real state of Icelandic banking, he wrote a series of letters to the Financial Times defending the soundness of Icelandic banks and imputing professional incompetence to those who doubted it.

    Edward Prescott and Finn Kydland
    For jointly developing and popularizing "Real Business Cycle" theory, which by omitting the role of credit greatly diminished the economics profession’s understanding of dynamic macroeconomic processes.

    Paul Samuelson
    Through his textbook Economics: An Introductory Analysis (19 English language editions and translated into 40 languages), he popularized neoclassical economics, contributing more than any other economist to its diffusion and thereby to the deregulation of financial markets which made possible the GFC.

    Larry Summers
    As US Secretary of the Treasury (formerly an economist at Harvard and the World Bank), he worked successfully for the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act, which since the Great Crash of 1929 had kept deposit banking separate from casino banking. He also worked with Greenspan and Wall Street interests to torpedo efforts to regulate derivatives.

    Procedures
    The voting is being conducted using PollDaddy. Its system uses cookies to prevent repeat voting. A voting box showing the short-listed candidates and a link to their dossiers will remain till voting closes near the top of the right-hand column on the home page of the Real-World Economics Review Blog. Voting is open to all interested parties. Each voter can vote for up to three of the listed candidates. The ballots are secret. Voting will remain open for several weeks. No results will be announced before closing the poll.

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    2/02/2010 11:20:00 AM 0 comments

    Monday, October 12, 2009

     

    A Note on the Nobel Awards

    by Dollars and Sense

    The Nobel Prize for economics was awarded today to a pair of American professors, Elinor Ostrom and Oliver Williamson. Besides being the first economics Nobel to be awarded to a woman, the choice was notewothy on several other accounts. Both laureates were not considered frontrunners, at least by the London bookies who actually take bets on such things, and both teach at public universities, rather than the usual coterie of MIT, Harvard, Stanford and the University of Chicago. But the most interesting characteristic concerns Ostrom: she's not even an economics PhD, but a political scientist. In a field like professional economics, which is compulsive to a ridiculous degree about who qualifies as an economist, this is a very welcome change.

    It's also welcome inasmuch as both Williamson and Ostrom are practitioners of what is known as "institutional economics". Institutional economics focuses on the way economic outcomes are conditioned by institutions which provide rules of the game--which often-times clash, and are not always transparent, and hence evolve--for individuals party to dealings and transactions that have economic significance. Needless to say, such a contribution have served to flesh out stagnant and superficial ideas of individual rationality and utility maximization that were for all too long taken as axiomatic in conventional economics. In recent years, they've also be increasingly amenable to empirical analysis, though there's still a long, long way to go on this score.

    Both Williamson and Ostrom were honored because of work they did which has come to replace standard thinking that derives from two classical contributions to conventional welfare economics by Ronald Coase. Williamson expanded on Coase's theory of the size of the firm, which states that the firm exists because it reduces operational costs that would be forbiddingly large if firms didn't exist, and all operations within a firm were carried out by independent contractors with individual contracts. He went beyond Coase by remarking upon ways in which markets were inefficient, as well as by showing how "transactions costs"--the sort of costs of the structures that exist so business can be done in the first place--can be minimized by creating certain organizational structures that address specific problems arising from market encounters themselves characterized by information asymmetries and other sometimes unavoidable impediments to the efficient functioning.

    Ostrom's work challenged "Coase's theorem," which implies that only the establishment of private contracts can prevent the inefficient distribution of public goods. A more contemporary cahracterization of the problem refers to the "tragedy of the commons," in which goods available to anyone without cost will inevitably involve incentives to maximize utilization of resources to an unsustainable degree. But Ostrom's work details all manner of arrangements which result in the efficient and equitable distribution of natual resource pools, but are not enforced by contracts. Instead, local communities are capable of devising implicit rules transmitted often by custom alone, which are often ingenious and complex enough to regulate distribution of scarce natural resources for long periods.

    So, the choice is progressive in a kind of weird way (and it's also progressive inasmuch as Eugene Fama, the founder of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, which was taught in a simplistic and dogmatic fashion to a generation of market movers, and certainly contributed in some way to the current crash--and who was the favorite to win--did not win): it's nice that, particularly in Ostrom's case, factors not reducible to purely economic ones are being investigated and acknowledged as having economic significance, but it's ironic that this is only happening as many such structures have been reduced or even eliminated under the relentless onslaught of marketization for several decades. In this sense, this award, like the one awarded to Joseph Stiglitz, which, by implication, would have been very useful, if heeded, in reducing the horrific scope of the financial crisis, may amount to too little, too late.

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    10/12/2009 02:22:00 PM 0 comments