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    Wednesday, August 27, 2008

     

    We're Not All Friedmanites Now

    by Dollars and Sense

    From Thomas Frank's WSJ column last week, unrest at the University of Chicago over the soon-to-be unveiled Milton Friedman Institute:

    We're Not All Friedmanites Now

    By Thomas Frank

    Once upon a time there was a master narrative, and a neater little theory-of-everything you never did see. In its 19th century heyday it rationalized the having of the haves and commanded the deference of the have-nots; it spoke from the pulpit, the newspaper and the professor's chair.

    Its name was market, and to slight it in even the smallest way was to take your professional life into your hands. In 1895, the economist Edward Bemis found this out when he was dismissed from John D. Rockefeller's University of Chicago thanks to his "attitude on public utility and labor questions," as he put it in a letter to Upton Sinclair. Professors elsewhere paid the same price for intellectual independence.

    But the orthodoxy lost its power of life and death. Academia developed protections for scholars who pursued unpopular ideas. Rockefeller's University of Chicago went on to become the pre-eminent research university in the land, a temple of free inquiry and a magnet for Nobel prizes. I studied there and loved its atmosphere of endless debate.

    -snip-

    What ought to alarm us, though, is the Milton Friedman Institute's apparent plan to transform free-market orthodoxy into a bankable intellectual product. What is evidently going to reel in the dollars here is not research but ideology.

    Read the rest of the article

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    8/27/2008 02:04:00 PM 1 comments

    Monday, August 18, 2008

     

    Obama Tilt Toward Rubinomics

    by Dollars and Sense

    This is from Bloomberg.com; hat-tip to Doug Henwood of Left Business Observer.

    Obama Tilt Toward Rubinomics Stirs Warning From Organized Labor

    By Kristin Jensen and Matthew Benjamin

    Aug. 18 (Bloomberg) -- AFL-CIO Secretary-Treasurer Richard Trumka delivers a slap at former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin in a slide show exhorting union members to back Democrat Barack Obama for president.

    Blaming unfettered global trade and inadequate government regulation for lost manufacturing jobs and a staggering economy, Trumka's presentation cautions that "it will do us little good if, when the next Democrat moves into the White House, Wall Street takes command of our country's economic policy."

    Trumka leaves no doubt that the rebuke is aimed at Rubin, Wall Street's most prominent Democrat. It's "hard to tell the difference" between Rubin and Republican Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, the presentation says. Trumka's critique reflects the concern among organized-labor officials that Rubin and like- minded Democrats may win the behind-the-scenes battle to shape Obama's economic thinking.

    "I'm hearing Rubin's name more and more associated with the campaign's economic policy," says James Torrey, a top Obama fundraiser and chief executive officer of New York-based Torrey Associates LLC, a hedge-fund investor.

    Rubin, who became chairman of Citigroup Inc.'s executive committee after leaving President Bill Clinton's Cabinet, represents policy priorities that would favor free trade and more emphasis on deficit-cutting budget discipline if Obama beats Republican John McCain on Nov. 4. Meanwhile, Trumka and his boss, AFL-CIO President John Sweeney, are pushing trade policies that would protect U.S. industries, universal health care, and spending on highway construction and other projects that would create union jobs.

    Read the rest of the article.

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    8/18/2008 10:30:00 AM 0 comments

    Saturday, August 16, 2008

     

    Bill Black on McCain on Fox News

    by Dollars and Sense

    William K. Black, who wrote the cover story of our November/December issue, (Mis)Understanding a Banking Industry in Transition, was interviewed for a Fox News special on John McCain's role in the "Keating Five" scandal, which was the major political fallout of the savings & loan scandal. The special will air at 8pm on Tuesday, August 19th (but check your local listings to see exactly when it will air.) He was also interviewed for a CNN special on the same topic.

    McCain's central (negative) role in that scandal has been underreported in this year's presidential election, so this coverage by Fox and CNN is most welcome, especially if Bill Black can provide his perspectives. As we mentioned on the D&S blog in February, Bill played a central (positive) role in that scandal:

    Black was deputy director of the Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation when McCain, along with the rest of the "Keating Five" (Sens. Alan Cranston, Dennis DeConcini, John Glenn, and Don Riegle) tried to influence regulators on behalf of Charles Keating, chairman of the then-failing Lincoln Savings & Loan. Black was one of the regulators the senators tried to influence; Edwin J. Gray, chairman of the Federal Home Loan Bank Board, was another. Keating had donated to all the senators' campaigns, and McCain's wife, Cindy, whom the Times describes as "the heiress to a beer fortune" in Arizona, had "joined Mr. Keating in investing in an Arizona shopping mall."

    The collapse of the Lincoln S&L cost taxpayers approximately $3.4 billion; the S&L crisis as a whole cost taxpayers more than $124 billion, according to the General Accounting Office.

    (Side note: the scandal did not end the careers of any of the Keating Five; Cranston, DeConcini, and Riegle all served out their terms; Glenn and McCain both stood for re-election and won. Perversely, after his senate term ended, DeConcini was appointed by President Clinton to the the Board of Directors of the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, aka "Freddie Mac".)

    Click here and here for earlier postings on Bill Black, McCain, and the S&L crisis.

    The Fox special will apparently be a one-hour documentary on McCain that "looks at the character and conduct of the candidate, both pro and con"; a subsequent one-hour Fox News documentary on Obama will examine "the tragedies of his early years, growing up with his grandparents and going to college, his job as a community organizer and later as a Harvard Law School student and Illinois legislator," according to the Hollywood Reporter.

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    8/16/2008 10:00:00 AM 1 comments

    Friday, August 15, 2008

     

    The Great Crash of 2008, by Mason Gaffney

    by Polly Cleveland

    This crash is The Big One; it has signs of becoming a Category 5. How do we know? We've "been there and done that" so many times before, roughly every 18 years over the last 800 or more. Major wars and, rarely, plagues have broken the rhythm, along with the little ice age, reformation and counter-reformation, political revolutions and reactions, the rise of nation-states, the enclosure movement, the age of exploration, massive European imports of stolen American gold, the scientific and industrial revolutions, the Crusades, Mongol and Turkish invasions, and other upheavals. Yet, the endogenous cycle keeps returning, as soon as we find peace, and economic life returns to its even tenors. What President Warren Harding famously called "normalcy" soon evolved into another boom and a shocking bust, as so often before. Calm and routine prosperity has never been man's lot for long: it somehow leads to its own downfall, cycle after cycle.



    Follow the link to read on...

     

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    8/15/2008 10:23:00 PM 0 comments

    Thursday, August 14, 2008

     

    John Miller on the Radio

    by Dollars and Sense

    Economist and Dollars & Sense columnist John Miller is on the radio--on the program Justice or Just Us? on KUCI in Irvine, Calif. He's talking about the recent GAO report showing that many corporations pay no taxes at all in the United States.

    John's latest Up Against the Wall Street Journal column, just posted to the D&S website, is on cap-and-trade programs: "For the Wall Street Journal's editors, fear of a bigger government outweighs the fear of a warmer planet."

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    8/14/2008 10:36:00 AM 0 comments

    Friday, August 08, 2008

     

    Economists' Letter on Offshore Drilling

    by Dollars and Sense

    See below for information about how to add your signature to this letter.

    Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid
    Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell
    House Speaker Nancy Pelosi
    House Minority Leader John Boehner

    Dear Senators Reid and McConnell and Representatives Pelosi and Boehner,

    As economists, we write out of concern that you are being pressured to lift the Congressional ban on most oil drilling off our coasts, despite the fact that this would do nothing in the short term and almost nothing in the long term to reduce gas prices. Simpler measures that don't threaten our environment would do much more.

    The federal government's Energy Information Administration projects that this would have no impact on gas prices in the near-term since it will be close to a decade before the first oil could be extracted. The EIA projects production would reach 200,000 barrels a day at peak production. It describes this amount as too small to have any significant effect on oil prices, even when production is at its peak. [1]

    If the US had raised auto fuel efficiency standards between 1985-2005 by a quarter of the amount it raised them annually from 1980-1985, instead of leaving them virtually unchanged, the result would roughly have been the equivalent of 3.3 million barrels of oil per day in new production,16 times the projected impact of offshore drilling. [2] It is reasonable to assume that modest increases in fuel efficiency in the future would have a similar effect. If we negotiated an agreement with Iran that led to the lifting of US sanctions, oil production in Iran could increase 1-2 million barrels a day. That would be 5-10 times the projected impact of drilling off our coasts.

    U.S. oil companies are not doing all they can do boost production. In May, the Washington Post reported that Exxon had spent $8 billion buying back shares in the first quarter as a way to boost the value of the stock for shareholders. That far exceeded the company's $5.5 billion capital spending budget.[3] In 2006, Exxon spent $25 billion buying back its stock, again more than its capital spending budget. [4] The industry spent $52.4 billion on stock buybacks in 2006, nearly double the amount in 2005. [5]

    It would be far better to pursue modest conservation and negotiations with Iran, having the effect of bringing 20-25 times as much oil on the market, rather than endanger tourism, fishing, and beaches on our coasts for a long-term effect on gas prices that we won't even notice.

    Thank you for your consideration of our concerns.

    Michael Perelman, Economics Dept., California State University, Chico
    James Devine, Economics Dept., Loyola Marymount University, Los Angeles
    Hadi Salehi Esfahani, Economics Dept. University of Illinois, Urbana
    Mark Weisbrot, Center for Economic and Policy Research, Washington
    Rudy Fichtenbaum, Economics Dept., Wright State University, Dayton, Ohio
    Michael Brun, Economics Dept., Illinois State University, Bloomington-Normal
    Hank Leland, Research Analyst, SEIU, Washington
    Edward S. Herman, Finance Department, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania
    Jeffrey Stewart, Economics Dept., University of Cincinnati
    Laurence Shute, Economics Dept., California State Polytechnic University, Pomona

    References:
    [1] Annual Energy Outlook 2007 with Projections to 2030, Energy Information Administration, February 2007.
    [2] Offshore Drilling and Energy Conservation: The Relative Impact on Gas Prices, Dean Baker and Nichole Szembrot, Center for Economic and Policy Research, June 2008.
    [3] "Up $10.9 Billion, Exxon Worries About New Tax," Steven Mufson, Washington Post, May 2 2008.
    [4] "Higher Oil Prices Help Exxon Again Set Record Profit, " Steven
    Mufson, Washington Post, February 2, 2007.
    [5] "Big Companies Put Record Sums Into Buybacks," Ian McDonald,. Wall Street Journal, June 12, 2006.


    Please send signatures to naiman--at--justforeignpolicy.org, with subject
    line: sign economists letter. Please include some affiliation broadly
    consistent with the notion of "economists' letter."

    Deadline: end of day Friday August 15.

    Robert Naiman
    Just Foreign Policy
    www.justforeignpolicy.org
    naiman--at--justforeignpolicy.org

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    8/08/2008 02:18:00 PM 0 comments

     

    The Beijing Olympics by the Numbers

    by Dollars and Sense

    We just posted a web-only article on the Beijing Olympics that explains why global corporations are salivating while more than 1.5 million people have been displaced. The Geneva-based Centre on Housing Rights and Evictions has documented the massive displacement that "mega-events" like the Olympic Games regularly cause, but the Beijing games have far outpaced its predecessors.

    Please also check out Julie Hollar's excellent article, Carrying a Torch for Anti-China Protests, from the most recent issue of Extra!. "For once, mainstream media have found an anti-government protest to embrace," Hollar explains. The same media outlets that barely registered antiwar protests over the past few years fell over themselves to cover the most minute details of the pro-Tibet protests interrupting the Olympic torch relay. Why? Because China is an "official enemy." (The whole issue is great--but Extra! always is, ioho.)

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    8/08/2008 02:01:00 PM 0 comments

     

    Now Wall Street Wants Your Pension, Too

    by Dollars and Sense

    JPMorganChase, Citi, Cerberus, and Morgan Stanley are among the firms lobbying Washington to let them take over and run corporate pension funds.

    [Hat-tip to Ira Glazer on lbo-talk for alerting us to this article.]

    by Matthew Goldstein | BusinessWeek | August 8, 2008

    The folks who brought you the mortgage mess and the ensuing hedge fund blowups, busted buyouts, and credit market gridlock have another bold idea: buying up and running troubled corporate pension plans. And despite the subprime fiasco, some regulators may soon embrace Wall Street's latest scheme.

    The Treasury Dept. on Aug. 6 offered a blueprint for lawmakers on Capitol Hill to allow "financially strong entities in well-regulated sectors" to acquire pension plans , after the IRS ruled that the concept needed legislative approval. "The Administration's proposal says these deals should only be permitted when the acquiring entity has a higher credit-rating than the seller," says Charles Millard, director of the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. (PBGC), the federal insurer of last resort of corporate pension plans. "Such a transaction creates greater security for retirees and the pension system." The issue will now, no doubt, move to Congress after the election.

    In preparation for that moment, the world's biggest big investment banks, insurers, hedge funds, and private equity shops have been quietly laying the groundwork for such deals over the past year. They would be a big prize for Wall Street. The $2.3 trillion pension honey pot has $500 billion in "frozen plans" that are closed to new employees and whose benefits are capped, including those at IBM IBM, Hewlett Packard (HPQ), Verizon (VZ), and Alcoa (AA). And that figure could triple by 2012, according to consulting firm McKinsey. By managing those troubled plans, Wall Street also gains entrée to an appealing set of customers to whom it can sell a broad array of fee-generating products. "We have identified several clients who would be willing to be first to sell a plan," says Scott Macey, a senior vice-president at Aon Consulting. "But the question is, when is a good time for this?"

    The concept of off-loading pension funds sounds great. For businesses it's a chance to rid themselves of struggling plans, which can weigh down a balance sheet. It's especially good timing now. New accounting rules take effect in the next year or so that will require companies to mark their pension assets to prevailing market prices each quarter—a change that could devastate some companies' profits. Meanwhile, many companies no longer want to pay for pensions, troubled or otherwise. A recent report from the U.S. Government Accountability Office found that most companies freeze their pension plans merely to avoid "the impact of annual contributions to their cash flows."

    But the gambit to turn pensions into for-profit enterprises raises troubling questions. Critics, including some on Capitol Hill, worry that financial firms don't have workers' best interest at heart, which would put some 44 million current and future retirees at risk. "We think it's just a terrible idea," says Karen Friedman, policy director for advocacy group Pensions Rights Center. "In the wake of the subprime crisis, it would be crazy to allow financial institutions to manage these plans."

    Read the rest of the article.

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    8/08/2008 01:50:00 PM 0 comments

    Wednesday, August 06, 2008

     

    A Tale of Two Polls

    by Dollars and Sense

    Poll: Nearly half hearing too much about Obama

    Wed Aug 6, 10:47 AM ET

    WASHINGTON - Barack Obama may be the fresh face in this year's presidential election, but nearly half say they're already tired of hearing about him, a poll says.

    With Election Day still three months away, 48 percent said they're hearing too much about the Democratic candidate, according to a poll released Wednesday by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center. Just 26 percent said the same about his Republican rival, John McCain. Read the rest of the article.


    More Peruvians Favor Socialism Than Capitalism

    by Steve Crabtree

    WASHINGTON, D.C. -- A simple contradiction helps illuminate growing political tensions in Peru: About half of Peruvians (49%), according to a 2007 Gallup Poll in the South American nation, say they personally are more socialist than capitalist in their attitudes, while just 16% say they are more capitalist than socialist. However, 45% of Peruvians view their country as more capitalist than socialist, while just 24% say it is more socialist than capitalist.

    Garcia's political weakness has made him vulnerable to attacks from populist leaders in the country's southern Andean region, an area that has failed to see much of the economic progress enjoyed further north. Hernan Fuentes, head of the Puno region in the south, regularly criticizes Garcia's economic liberalism, favoring the "socialist nationalism" model exemplified by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. Populist former army officer Ollanta Humala, who narrowly lost the 2006 presidential election to Garcia, also has a political stronghold in the south. Read the rest of the article

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    8/06/2008 01:07:00 PM 0 comments

    Monday, August 04, 2008

     

    Companies Tap Pension Plans To Fund Executive Benefits

    by Dollars and Sense

    Excellent reporting on the front page of today's WSJ:
    Companies Tap Pension Plans To Fund Executive Benefits

    Little-Known Move Uses Tax Break Meant For Rank and File

    By ELLEN E. SCHULTZ and THEO FRANCIS
    August 4, 2008; Page A1

    At a time when scores of companies are freezing pensions for their workers, some are quietly converting their pension plans into resources to finance their executives' retirement benefits and pay.

    In recent years, companies from Intel Corp. to CenturyTel Inc. collectively have moved hundreds of millions of dollars of obligations for executive benefits into rank-and-file pension plans. This lets companies capture tax breaks intended for pensions of regular workers and use them to pay for executives' supplemental benefits and compensation.

    The practice has drawn scant notice. A close examination by The Wall Street Journal shows how it works and reveals that the maneuver, besides being a dubious use of tax law, risks harming regular workers. It can drain assets from pension plans and make them more likely to fail. Now, with the current bear market in stocks weakening many pension plans, this practice could put more in jeopardy.

    How many is impossible to tell. Neither the Internal Revenue Service nor other agencies track this maneuver. Employers generally reveal little about it. Some benefits consultants have warned them not to, in order to forestall a backlash by regulators and lower-level workers.

    Read the rest of the article.

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    8/04/2008 02:26:00 PM 0 comments

    Sunday, August 03, 2008

     

    The Banks and Private Equity

    by Dollars and Sense

    A good editorial from today's New York Times, cautioning against private equity firms' efforts to get the Fed to relax bank ownership regulations. The current issue of Dollars & Sense includes a feature article by a former industry insider that exposes how an already favorable regulatory landscape allows private equity firms to reap megaprofits at the expense of the companies they buy and sell and the communities that depend on them.

    The Banks and Private Equity

    Many banks are ailing, lamed by hundreds of billions of dollars in bad loans and poor investments and hamstrung by the prospect of continued multibillion- dollar losses.

    There is no painless solution. If banks retrench by making fewer loans, families and businesses are hurt and with them, the broader economy. If banks cope by building bigger cushions against losses, shareholders take the hit in the form of lower dividends, lower earnings per share, lower stock prices or some combination.

    Yet, for the past month, some private equity firms have been promoting what they claim would be a relatively pain-free fix of the nation’s banks. And the Federal Reserve — which must know that if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is — has yet to say no, as it should.

    Private equity firms say they are ready to invest huge amounts in ailing banks — provided the Fed eases up on the regulations that would otherwise apply to such large investments. The firms’ desire to jump in makes perfect sense. Bank shares are cheap now, but for the most part, are likely to rebound when the economy improves. The firms’ push for easier rules, however, is a dangerous power grab, and should be rejected.

    Under current rules, if an investment firm owns 25 percent or more of a bank, it is considered, properly, a bank holding company, subject to the same federal requirements and responsibilities as a fully regulated bank. If a firm owns between 10 percent and 25 percent of a bank, it is typically barred from controlling the bank’s management. To place a director on a bank’s board, an investor’s ownership stake must be less than 10 percent. The rules exist to prevent conflicts of interest and concentration of economic power. They protect consumers and businesses who rely on well-regulated banks, as well as taxpayers, who stand behind the government’s various subsidies and guarantees to banks.

    To maximize their profits, private equity firms want to own more than 9.9 percent of the banks they have their eye on and they want more managerial control — and they want it all without regulation. They argue that because they tend to be shorter-term investors, problems that the rules address are unlikely to occur on their watch. That is a weak argument. It does not necessarily take a great deal of time to do damage. And as the financial crisis demonstrates daily, decisions and actions taken by unregulated and poorly supervised firms can prove disastrous years later.

    Worse, the private equity firms are exploiting the desperation of banks and regulators. They know that banks are desperate to raise capital and that doing so is a painful process bankers would rather avoid. They also know that regulators and other government officials, many of whom where asleep on the job as the financial crisis developed, want to avoid the political fallout and economic pain of bank weakness and failure.

    Federal regulators would be wrong to cave. Now, when there is great uncertainty about which institutions are too big or too interconnected to fail, is exactly the wrong time to allow less transparency and less regulation. And with confidence in the financial system badly shaken, it would be a mistake to signal to global markets and American citizens that the government is willing to put expediency above long-term stability.

    Held to the same rules as other investors, private equity firms may choose to invest less. Some banks may have a tougher time repairing the damage to their institutions. Some banks will fail. That, unfortunately, is what happens in a financial crisis.

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    8/03/2008 08:30:00 PM 1 comments