Subscribe to Dollars & Sense magazine. Recent articles related to the financial crisis. The Fed Must Counteract Asset BubblesFrom the folks at SAFER (The Economists' Committee for Stable, Accountable, Fair, and Efficient Financial Reform), which is a project of the Political Economy Research Institute. Hat-tip to LF.The Federal Reserve Must Counteract Asset Bubbles Dean Baker, Jane D'Arista and Gerald Epstein Center for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) and Political Economy Research Institute November 24, 2009 The Federal Reserve Board's main job is to use its monetary policy tools to stabilize the U.S. macro-economy. To this end, it must take responsibility for recognizing and counteracting asset bubbles before they grow large enough to pose a danger. Both the stock bubble of the 90s and the housing bubble of this decade were easily recognizable based on the fundamentals in these markets. In both cases there were sharp divergences from long-term trends with no plausible fundamentals-driven explanation. For example, the $8 trillion housing bubble which grew up in years 1996-2006 fueled by huge piles of debt, leveraged securities and massive banker bonuses, could have been easily recognized. There was a sudden acceleration of housing prices beyond inflation rates, departing from a hundred year long trend. There was no unusual increase in rents, demonstrating clearly this run-up was not driven by fundamentals. Yet the Federal Reserve, first under Alan Greenspan and then under Ben Bernanke, did nothing to counter-act this bubble that has now burst and brought down our economy. The Fed's failure to do anything about the bubble is an egregious error, not just because the bubble was easily observable, but also because the Fed has many tools at its disposal to allow it to limit asset bubbles while achieving its other important monetary policy goals, such as achieving full employment and price stability. The Fed must use these tools now to counteract asset bubbles as they develop. First and foremost, the Fed should try to counteract asset bubbles by informing the markets and the public. This involves using its research staff to carefully document the evidence of the existence of a bubble and its potential dangers to the economy as a whole and to various sectors. The Fed should use its public platforms to widely disseminate this information. To ensure that the Fed is appropriately monitoring these dangers, it should make periodic reports to Congress, to be disseminated widely, on emerging asset bubbles. This information will put the investing community and public on notice that the Federal Reserve has the asset bubble in its sights and may be preparing to take action against it. In addition, when appropriate, the Fed should use other tools under its control. These include:
Finally, the Federal Reserve can also raise interest rates as a tool to attack asset bubbles, recognizing the cost to the larger economy. Used properly, a rise in interest rates, with the deflation of an asset bubble as an explicitly stated target, is likely to prove very effective. But these interest rate increases must be care-fully designed to be consistent with the Federal Reserve's goals of maintaining full employment with reasonable degrees of price stability. If the Fed refuses to take responsibility for counteracting systemically dangerous asset bubbles, then Congress should consider imposing a rule on the Fed that would require it, for example, to raise leverage or margin requirements on a given group of assets when any one or more of them rises above the historical norm and/or by more than 10% a year (or 2 1/2% a quarter). The prospects of such a rule would likely get the Federal Reserve's attention rather quickly. References: Dean Baker, Investigating the Collapse: Looking for the Killer We Already Know, Center for Economic Policy Research, June 2009. Jane D'Arista, Leverage, Proprietary Trading and Funding Activities, SAFER Policy Note # 1, November, 2009. Thomas I. Palley, A Better Way to Regulate Financial Markets: Asset Based Reserve Requirements SAFER Policy Briefs # 15, November, 2009. Labels: asset bubbles, Dean Baker, Federal Reserve, Gerald Epstein, Jane D'Arista, SAFER
Comments:
after reading this article I was left with yet another foul, lingering odor of deciet and coersion. The Fed must stay out of all things financial, plain and simple. It has done nothing but damage since it's inception in the 1920's. The depression of 1920-21 was short mainly due to the governments policy of budget reductions and abstinence from interfering in free market principals. Thomas Delorenzo explains this in great detail, as well as the causes of the extentuation of the depression of the 1930's: The facts cannot be ignored. The federal reserve must cease to exist or there will be no genuine recovery; more bubbles will be created with the 'real' prices of goods remaining unknown as they are today. What is it going to take to get people and so-called economists to understand the present fed fueled system will not work? One thing comes to mind: the decay of the dollar. Throughout history, countries that atrificially stimulate their markets and inflate their money supply have collapsed. This situation is no different, other than the fact the American dollar remains the world reserve currency. Eventually this inflation spending will come to an end with the demise of america's currency. Even macro-economists must see this...but I do wonder what they are teaching in our universities.
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