Subscribe to Dollars & Sense magazine. Recent articles related to the financial crisis. The Crisis and US Export/Import DestinationsWonder how this reflects on NAFTA (especially from a Mexican perspective--they're getting absolutely killed by this). From Vox EU:Transmission of the global recession through US trade Michael J. Ferrantino Aimee Larsen 29 August 2009 International trade has transmitted demand contractions across national boundaries throughout the crisis. This column analyses the transmission of the recession through US trade flows at the sectoral level. US imports of housing construction inputs peaked before many other popular housing indicators. International trade has played a major role in the global recession especially in transmitting demand contractions across national boundaries (Freund 2009). According to standard trade-linkages reasoning, countries "catch" recessions from their major export partners while transmitting recessions to their major import suppliers. This simple economic logic directs attention to a set of facts that has heretofore attracted little attention in the global debate. US exports are disproportionately sold to the EU and Canada (a bilateral trade surplus); US imports are disproportionately sourced from China, Japan, and the rest of Asia (a bilateral trade deficit). Imports from China dominated the US (real) import decline, while exports to Canada figured disproportionately in US export declines. US imports peaked in October 2007, with a secondary peak in October 2008, and a trough in February 2009. US exports, by contrast, continued to rise until much later in June 2008. The timing of US import peaks by sector is markedly different from that of US export peaks by sector. The export peaks cluster around the general peak in mid-2008. The import peaks, by contrast, both came much earlier (end of 2007) and show a great deal of sectoral dispersion. US imports related to housing construction--especially wood and construction equipment--showed relatively early downturns. The downturn in US imports of motor vehicles and parts has been particularly deep; it began in March 2007 when oil prices were still rising sharply. Read the rest of the article Labels: exports, financial crisis, imports, NAFTA, Trade, vox eu Please consider donating to Dollars & Sense and/or subscribing to the magazine (both print and e-subscriptions now available!). |
